Appeasement or waiting for the decisive moment.. What is behind Ahmadinejad's silence on Iran's protests?

A policy of appeasement or waiting for the decisive moment.. What is behind Ahmadinejad’s silence on Iran’s protests? Updated Saturday 12/31/2022 12:28 PM Abu Dhabi time With the protests in Iran continuing for the fourth month in a row without subsiding yet, critical voices came from within the system, for the government’s “violent” dealings with the demonstrators. Those voices, which condemned state violence against the ongoing wave of protests that began in mid-September, were carried by the majority of political figures, celebrities and sports icons in Iran. However, the silence of the former president and member of the Expediency Council (governing body) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad since the beginning of the protests was arousing “curiosity and astonishment”, especially since the man who was mired in the mantle of power, has been diligent since his resignation in 2013 to draw a new public image of himself that is distinguished With liberal attitudes, its title is a conciliatory foreign policy and tolerant views on women’s rights. While the former Iranian president recently criticized his country for siding with Russia in its military operation in Ukraine, his silence on Mahsa Amini’s protests had several interpretations. Including what observers said about him, that he has future plans and a role that he wants to define for himself in the hierarchy of the ruling authority. Experts say Ahmadinejad does not want to lose his status by sympathizing with the protesters, which would inevitably anger Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who supported his presidency unconditionally. In addition, Kamran Bokhari, director of analytical development at the New Lines Institute for American Strategy and Policy, told Al-Monitor that Ahmadinejad is trying to control the “moderate mantle,” but at the same time he realizes that he cannot be a rebel against the establishment. . “You ate the regime’s bread”… a division between the Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei due to the protests On the reason for the former Iranian president’s silence on the protests, Bukhari said, “Ahmadinejad is in a difficult place. He wants to benefit from the current situation, but he realizes that the restrictions he imposed during his reign will not make the demonstrators support him because of His legacy,” noting that “the fault lines within the regime have become sharper than before given the ongoing crisis, which may also explain Ahmadinejad’s silence.” He added, director of analytical development at the New Lines Institute for American Strategy and Policy, that Ahmadinejad is watching the situation closely, and “will jump into the fray when the risks of doing so are far less than the potential rewards.” Many behind Ahmadinejad’s silence Professor of Modern Middle Eastern History at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland Ali Ansari said: “I am not convinced that the vast majority of people think this is nothing more than opportunism, and Ahmadinejad’s recent silence says a lot.” “I think he realizes that the situation is serious enough now to allow for political theater of the kind he is indulging in and which the establishment has flooded him with,” Ansari said. “If he talks about someone else now, the consequences could be dire for him.” Abbas Amirifar, the hardline political cleric who has been close to Ahmadinejad for years and was a cultural advisor to the presidency, says that “Ahmadinejad told the leaders close to him not to take any position on the protests and to adhere to a position of neutrality.” Amirifar added in an interview with the Iranian “Arshah Online” website: “I have been disconnected from Ahmadinejad for years, but what I understand from him is that he and his supporters do not believe in the system and Khamenei’s leadership at all.” Regarding his silence, he answered, “My analysis is that they have a plan for the upcoming parliamentary or presidential elections. They have a plan to turn off the lights for the parliamentary elections, and they want to enter the presidency with all their might. Ahmadinejad and his supporters believe that Ibrahim Raisi’s government will fail.” He continued, “I have not communicated with him for several years, but I know that after waiting for him not to be arrested and obtaining a position in the Expediency Council, he spoke to his forces not to take a stand in any way in the recent events, and apparently, he told his supporters not to take a stand.” For or against the system. And the hard-line politician considered that the position of some reformists on what he called “the last sedition” was clearer than Ahmadinejad, saying: “Despite their many criticisms of the regime, when the reformists saw that the provocateurs wanted to question everything, they also stood against the riots, so perhaps the reformists took a position that will end Their political loss in the next stage, but they supported the regime unlike Ahmadinejad. Is the regime threatened Ahmadinejad? Amirifar did not rule out that “Ahmadinejad had received messages from the regime to arrest him in the event that he expressed a position on the protests that opposes the regime’s policy,” saying, “When people like Hassan Rouhani or Nateq Nuri (a moderate politician) were removed, this was a message to Ahmadinejad that if you In the system, we have nothing to do with you, otherwise your fate will be otherwise.” And he continued, “Ahmadinejad is not the one who listens to him, and he is silent only for his own interests, otherwise they will be eliminated and even his supporters will be eliminated forever, so they told them to remain silent in order to preserve this hope and their electoral future. Checkered history: 2005-2013… plunged Iran into unprecedented isolation by banning newspapers, unleashing censorship, and tightening restrictions on the Internet. 2006.. The infamous section of Iranian law enforcement agencies known as the morality police, responsible for the death of Mahsa Amini, appeared for the first time on the instructions of Ahmadinejad. 2007. A speech given by Ahmadinejad at Columbia University in New York City is booed over and over again by students and others in the audience. 2009.. The authorities, under the supervision of Ahmadinejad, blocked “Facebook” and “Twitter”, after protests against the regime led by the reformist opposition. During his reign, the offices of many foreign news agencies, such as Reuters and BBC, were closed in Tehran. During his reign, prominent pro-reform figures and journalists were tried in show trials. The Asian country was implicated in repeated diplomatic crises, as it was never invited for an official or state visit to any European country. The take-outs were repeated in his speeches at United Nations events and other international forums, and he was rejected by world leaders – even from countries traditionally associated with Iran – in 2012. Then-Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff refused to meet with him after arriving in Rio de Janeiro for the UN Rio Summit. 20. After leaving power after stepping down in 2013, Ahmadinejad began to move cautiously forward to portray a liberal image. He tried to appeal to the educated, urban middle class. He sought to balance his chances of running for office again, relying on the votes of frustrated Iranians. He has been directing harsh criticism of the entire regime, the person of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the nature of governance in his country. Some interpreted his absence from the Expediency Discernment Council meetings as Khamenei’s intention to remove him from office. Through interviews with media institutions hostile to the Iranian regime, such as the Persian service of Radio Free Europe (Radio Farda), or Independent Farsi, he sought to direct implicit criticism of the security services. He tried to present himself as a sane liberal politician who resisted the teachings of government and religious fundamentalism. He used social media to connect with the American public, paying tribute to NBA stars and other notable figures in American popular culture like Angelina Jolie, Larry King, and Malcolm X.

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