The vacancy cycle in Lebanon… A fifth session to elect the president, does it hold a surprise?
Tomorrow, Thursday, the Lebanese Parliament will hold a fifth session to elect a new president, amid the absence of consensus on an inclusive figure agreed upon by all parties.
More than a week after the presidential vacancy that began with the end of former President Michel Aoun’s term on October 31, the presidential election witnesses the inability of any party to resolve the quorum in its favour. What implies an expected failure of the House of Representatives tomorrow, in electing a new president, and the lack of any surprises in the session.
But at the same time, tomorrow’s session may carry new things and some changes in terms of the percentage of votes for Representative Michel Moawad, and some blocs belonging to the outgoing president’s team changing their positions, and putting forward new names, instead of voting with a white paper, in the event that the quorum of the session is completed.
Names on the stock exchange
The decision to nominate Representative Michel Moawad within the ranks of the opposition represented by the Forces and Kataeb Party, the Progressive Socialist Party, the Renewal Movement and some independents is still valid.
In the meantime, these parties are trying to persuade some of the undecided to vote for Moawad, in order to increase the percentage of votes for him in tomorrow’s session, after he received 42 votes in a previous session.
“The same scene will be repeated in tomorrow’s session in terms of the position of the Representatives of Change between who will nominate Issam Khalifa, Michel Moawad or the new Lebanon, and I am with the latter option,” Mark Daou, a representative of the Forces for Change (13 deputies), said in a televised interview today.
In his expectations for the proceedings of the fifth session tomorrow to elect a new president for the country, Dr. Muhammad Saeed Al-Raz, a Lebanese political analyst, confirmed, in an interview with “Al-Ain news”, that “the Lebanese parliament session tomorrow, Thursday, will not witness any decisive trends towards electing a new president for the republic.”
However, he added, “Tomorrow’s session may include some steps – as it appears so far – towards approaching the achievement of this constitutional entitlement, represented in the fact that some parliamentary blocs nominate their candidates for the presidency instead of the white paper, which they adopted in previous sessions, in the event that it is completed.” session quorum.
In this regard, he continued to say that “the Aounist movement, or the Free Patriotic Movement, may put forward a name between former minister Ziad Baroud – and converge in that with the change-making deputies who nominate the same person – and a member of the Aounist bloc such as Ibrahim Kanaan or Alain Aoun.”
President Nabih Berri’s bloc (development and liberation) – adds the rice – tends to propose the name of Suleiman Franjieh, and a number of independent deputies respond to it, while opposition deputies continue to nominate Michel Moawad.
And he added, “All of this is expected, without the parliament reaching a consensus on a majority president, but this state of Byzantine controversy will not last long, and the election process will enter into a serious framework with the beginning of the new year.”
The Lebanese political analyst believed that all the names presented so far are for negotiation, not for decision-making, and everyone is waiting for the password, which is often from outside Lebanon.
Al-Raz highlighted that “the army commander, General Joseph Aoun, remains the strongest in the arena of electing the president, as a number of blocs began circulating his name and highlighting the national specifications he carries, which represent the actual alternative to the bazaar of proposed names that reflects the state of political division in the country.”
So far, there is no sign of a breakthrough, or of reaching a consensus among the Lebanese political forces on a new president, to be elected by the Lebanese parliament.
And the Lebanese parliament failed, over the course of 4 sessions, to elect a president to succeed Aoun, as a result of the reluctance of the loyalist team (Michel Aoun’s political team) on the one hand to nominate a specific person, and their adherence to the white paper as an obstructive option until the moment, in contrast to the opposition forces’ failure to unite significantly. Behind the candidate is Representative Michel Moawad.
Observers said that the “presidential veto” lifted by Hezbollah and its specifications for the next president are pushing the country to obstruct and prevent the election of a “Made in Lebanon” president, in addition to dragging the country into the Iranian axis.